“We expect housing markets across Canada to strengthen leading into and over the course of 2010 as economic conditions improve”, said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

“Demand for existing homes has rebounded since the beginning of the year. In addition, lower inventory levels characterize both the new and existing home markets. As a result, stronger housing demand will be reflected in higher levels of housing starts in 2010”, said Mr. Dugan.

The strong pace of MLS® 1 sales seen in the second and third quarters of this year reflects, in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters and is not likely to be sustained. The level of sales is expected to move back closer in line with anticipated economic conditions. As a result, existing home sales, as measured by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®), will reach 441,300 units in 2009 and increase to 445,150 units in 2010. The average MLS® price is expected to be $312,950 in 2009 and $324,500 in 2010.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

The RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report found the bounce back that began in early Spring has made this recession one of the shortest on record.  Low interest rates, pent-up demand, and improved affordability levels have all played a role in the recovery now well-underway.  Percentage increases in unit sales from January to August 2009 were led by Vancouver, (up a substantial 14 per cent to 23,158), Victoria (up 7.4 per cent to 5,266), Edmonton (up 6.2 per cent to 13,691), Regina (up five per cent to 2,597), Ottawa (up 2.4 per cent to 10,830) and Toronto (up 1.8 per cent to 58,421).  Housing values are already ahead of record-breaking 2008 levels in seven of the 11 markets surveyed, including Newfoundland-Labrador (18.1 per cent year to $203,584), Regina (6.4 per cent to $244,088), Halifax-Dartmouth (3.5 per cent to $239,633), Winnipeg (3.5 per cent to $207,006), Ottawa (3.3 per cent to $301,684), and Toronto (up 0.3 per cent to $385,978).  Nationally, average price hovers at $312,585, up 0.5 per cent over one year ago.

Markets are heating up across the country as purchasers take advantage of affordable prices and rock bottom interest rates.  Those who missed the boat in years past have found that sitting on the sidelines can be a costly move.  Prices are on the upswing and inventory levels are tightening, so the push toward homeownership is expected to continue throughout the Fall and possibly into early 2010.

The recovery of Canada’s resale housing markets speaks to the tremendous value Canadians place on the importance of owning a home.  The number of Canadians overall who own a home has increased since 1981 from 62.1 per cent to 68.4 per cent, with some markets posting even higher homeownership rates — Calgary (74.1), St. John’s (71.5), and Regina (70.1).  Significant gains have also been made over the same period in markets such as Ottawa, where levels rose from 51.4 per cent to 66.7 per cent, and Toronto, where levels rose from 57.3 to 67.6 per cent.

Public sentiment can perhaps best be illustrated by a recent Angus Reid Omnibus Survey* that asked the question “In which do you feel more comfortable investing your money?  The stock market or real estate.”  Out of 1,000 respondents from coast-to-coast, 77 per cent chose real estate. The results of the RE/MAX Bricks and Mortar Report are clearly representative of this national dynamic at work.

The strength of the residential housing sector cross-country has taken many economists and housing analysts by surprise once again.  In terms of its impact on the resale market, by historical standards, this recession was one of the mildest.  The resilience of bricks and mortar has been demonstrated time and again.  While there may still be some challenges down the road, the worst is definitely behind us in the housing industry.

Over the past thirty years, the Canadian residential real estate market has experienced three major downturns – 1981, 1989, and 2008.  While there have also been regional fluctuations throughout the years, return on investment over this period has been substantial, with Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto, Regina and Ottawa leading the country in terms of price appreciation.

The overall stability of real estate as an investment has also played a role. Markets like Halifax-Dartmouth, Regina, Ottawa, Winnipeg and London have provided steady returns (especially in recent years), with minimal fluctuation.

* The Angus Reid Omnibus Survey was conducted on September 15, 2009 and yields a margin of error of +3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (May 2008)
*Homeownership rates based on 1986 boundaries for the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), RE/MAX

Luxury home sales have outperformed virtually all other residential price points this year, but activity in the top-end is expected to taper in most major Canadian centres in coming months, according to RE/MAX.

Given the transition occurring in most residential real estate markets, upper-end sales remain exceptionally strong. The market for luxury homes is usually the first to show pressure cracks, but the reverse is actually true this year, with pent-up demand (due to trade-up activity), less speculation, and job transfers all factors contributing to stability in this segment. However, uncertainty in financial markets both here and abroad is expected to give purchasers cause for concern in the immediate future.

The RE/MAX Upper-End Report, which highlights trends and developments in 15 housing markets across the country for the first seven months of 2008 found Vancouver, Victoria, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, London, Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa, Halifax-Dartmouth, and St. John’s all experienced an upswing in sales activity, while declines were noted in Kelowna, Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton-Burlington, and Toronto. Also significant is in all but two markets, percentage increases in sales were greatest in the upper-end when compared to the overall residential marketplace in 2008.

The top-end of the market represents less than five per cent of total sales, but activity is generally a gauge of overall market conditions. Leading the country in terms of percentage increase in luxury home sales are Regina (up 306 per cent); Winnipeg (up 89 per cent); St. John’s ( up 78 per cent); Saskatoon (up 72 per cent); Kitchener-Waterloo (up 47 per cent); Ottawa (up 36 per cent); Halifax-Dartmouth (up 20 per cent); London (up 14 per cent); Greater Vancouver (up five per cent); and Victoria (up four per cent). Solid performance is likely a result of consumer confidence, particularly in provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and parts of Ontario where solid economic fundamentals helped to bolster the number of homes sold in the upper-end.

In two-thirds of the markets surveyed, demand for upscale homes surpassed peak levels reported last year. However, with supply edging higher in most major centres and few markets reporting tight inventory levels, we are seeing a return to more balanced conditions. This situation is expected to have an impact on high-end values in coming months, especially in areas that have experienced consistent double-digit growth.

The RE/MAX Upper-End Report also notes serious appreciation in housing values in recent years has pushed upper-end price points to new levels. This is especially so in Western Canada where $2 million is now merely a starting price in Greater Vancouver, while in the tony Westside, that figure is closer to $4 million. Calgary is steady at $1 million this year, but is pushing closer to the $1.5 million benchmark. In Ottawa, where the upper-end price point is currently pegged at $750,000, sales are increasingly occurring over the $1 million mark.

Other highlights include:

• The most expensive MLS sale in Canada in 2008 occurred in Greater Vancouver with a sticker price of $11.5 million. A property priced at $9 million in Greater Toronto sold in a multiple offer situation for more than $11 million as well.
• The priciest condominium currently listed for sale on MLS is priced at $14.8 million in Greater Vancouver – reduced from $18 million earlier this year.
• The Four Seasons Hotel, currently under construction in Greater Toronto’s Yorkville area, has the most expensive list price in the country — $30 million for a penthouse suite on the 55th floor.